The logic here is that the chances of breaking through ATHs on first attempt is very low, something like 1 of 10? Only time it does is frenzied buying momentum caused by retail. What we have here is measured movements. There will be retrace however small it is.
However, this is one of those nobrainer trades. We all know there will be a pump prior to Bitcoin halving like what happens before every halving in its price history.
So, my profit here is $145,066 (47,237.90 + 97,828.59 “1.46524562btc”).
]]>I am truly paranoid when it comes to OPSEC. Because website checkers come and go. I check certificates myself if site is genuine. In Chrome, after going to Binance.com, you click the “view site information” icon and then click “connection is secure” and then click “certificate is valid”. You should see SHA-256 Fingerprints.
Currently Binance.com is:
Validity until: February 11, 2025 SHA-256: a26834e9071cbf6a00fc6936c9955f4fe345fc83c03960cc289e3642041ce512
I named my Binance website browser shortcut as a26-512 to note fingerprint. So everytime I log in I check.
Download only at https://www.binance.com/en/download or check https://github.com/binance/desktop/releases
Download the installer and right-click check properties. Click digital signatures tab, pick sha-1 or sha-256 and click details, click view certificate, note validity period of signature and then click details tab and then scroll down to thumbprint, you should see the below:
Validity until: December 31, 2024 SHA-256: 9e0dd4fea8e343c257076fb506ceed9c48b32a7f
This will be the thumbprint for all versions until end of year.
I prefer to download from Binance itself, not sure if Google Playstore is hackproof in the future. Anyway, download the android app at Binance. Check the checksum of the APK for reference. I use 7-ZIP to check:
Name: BNApp64.apk
Size: 187865441 bytes (179 MiB)
HA256: 57C48A6D87F59FB9C11D8B9729F90CC27BE4294346564B7C97F4C3DDD1F6276A
SHA1: 8DA40E91467EAE6FB1B7CFE13049EAF1EB5B0E34
According to Google Playstore, this version is 2.78.4. Install apk and then disable auto-updating the app in Playstore.
PS: I will update this post if checksum values change in the future.
]]>Developments of various solutions to improve blockchains’ throughput. There were many scaling solutions that have seen significant development, from data availability solutions like Celestia, to zkEVM efforts like zkSync, Scroll, and Polygon Hermez. Although the public interest with “Web3” had been decreasing in 2022, it remained more popular than a year ago. Monthly NFT trading volume on Ethereum hit a new all-time high in January of $5.6 billion, breaking its previous record in 2021.
Solana contended Ethereum as a new home to NFTs. Development of on-chain gaming. As a result of the infrastructure growth like Layer-2s, several new gaming primitives launched in 2022. We identified 40 on-chain games, primarily on StarkNet. This marks a staggering increase from the initial ~5 identified at the start of the year.
Download Digital Asset 2023 Outlook.
]]>Innovation drives economic growth.
This is what investors are looking for in cryptocurrencies - faster, easier, more secure, more decentralized, more function. These traits are what you are looking for in a great investment.
The following list are coins I’ve picked in 2017. I listed them here to illustrate why I picked them:
BNB It is a Binance coin where some of the transaction fees in the largest cryptoexchange which is in BNB are auto-burned, making it deflationary. An investment here is an investment in Binance. If you believed in Changpeng Zhao, ex-CTO at Okcoin, you would have been rich by now.
Hedera HBAR Hashgraph achieves high-throughput with 10,000+ transactions per second today and low-latency finality in seconds from its innovative gossip about gossip. It is similar to Nano (Raiblocks).
Nano Raiblocks has the block-lattice architecture that ensures that no malicious action can go unnoticed, so the system records the transaction as a difference between the balance of the account and consecutive blocks’ balances. Every block contained within the lattice records transactions and updates the account to change its state accordingly, similar to how a bank account works. Only account holders can manage and update their blocks in the system where each new block replaces the previous one. Every block also has a small fraction of Proof of Work to prevent malicious activities.
Algorand ALGO is supposed to be faster than Ethereum. It uses a pure proof-of-stake (PPoS) protocol built on Byzantine consensus. Each user’s influence on the choice of a new block is proportional to its stake (number of tokens) in the system. Users are randomly and secretly selected to propose blocks and vote on block proposals. All online users have the chance to be selected to propose and vote. The likelihood that a user will be chosen, and the weight of its proposals and votes, are directly proportional to its stake. It is similar to Neo (Antshares).
NEO is same as Algorand but it is supposed to be the Chinese Ethereum.
Tezos works on a liquid proof-of-stake, meaning that it cannot be mined. Instead, its users can stake (bake) their XTZ tokens in order to become nodes. If they don’t have enough tokens to become a full node, they can delegate their tokens and still participate. An investor “stakes” their coins by delegating them to a baker (transaction validator). This happens through a special smart contract on the Tezos network.
The Golem Network GLM is a decentralized computation network, a new way of distributing redundant computing power to those who are in need of it, on-demand. It creates a peer-to-peer network where users join on an equal basis to buy and sell computation, splitting up complicated tasks into smaller subtasks in the network. In Golem there’s no central authority and no user is more or less important than another. It is supposed to be an improvement on Ethereum.
Helium (HNT) is a decentralized blockchain-powered network for Internet of Things (IoT) devices.
Syntropy NOIA uses what is known as hybrid consensus. There are two separate parts that comprise the consensus protocol, identical to Polkadot: GRANDPA and BABE. Hybrid consensus splits up the finality gadget from the block production mechanism.
Quadrant Protocol EQUAD is a blockchain-based protocol that enables the mapping, access, creation, and distribution of data products and services with authenticity and provenance at its core.
So basically, all coins that pumped are 8 Layer-1 technologies that make blockchains faster and more efficient and one coin attached to the now number one crypto exchange.
These base blockchains have a higher chance of being adopted by the masses because they have the latest technology, the latest iteration of blockchain tech. Of course, we have yet to see which technology the whole world will use in the end. BNB is the only coin which only grew because of its attached exchange’s popularity.
EQUAD wasn’t really meant for mass adoption. It only caters to a very specific section of the tech market. Besides they already abandoned the project after making substandard prototype apps. Also, I remember they lack marketing.
The safest coin projects to invest in are the coins that caters to everybody, a base blockchain technology that everyone can use. These types of projects attract developers, enthusiasts, and investors, thus forming a community. Once you see the potential for community development, it is going to be a hit.
You see? I have a ear on what technology will be popular even though it doesn’t necessarily mean it will massively be adopted.
]]>Anyway in a previous blog entry, I made note of the total amount of money I need to fulfill my goals. And now, I have reached that target of $40,000 and much more.
However because circumstances changed, I need to update my goals to reflect the new reality. I remember the old key goals: 1. another round of IVF 2. Mazda 2 2019 3. a year’s worth of allowance. We won’t be having another IVF because the chances of success is very slim now; also my wife bought a new car, so we don’t need another one.
The new goals is listed somewhere in my files.
Another thing though. Even though we have the funds, I won’t be buying stuff ASAP. I will be buying the cheaper or the most urgent items in my list but I won’t be buying all because I plan to use the funds to buy Bitcoin/Crypto in case of another capitulation event (hopefully it won’t come to that). In the future if the price action of the crypto markets obviously shows the bear market is over, only then I’ll be spending the remaining funds.
]]>So, after experiencing two altcoin seasons in Crypto, I can finally say with certainty that 99% of altcoins die. You cannot rely on them being a long term hold. Less than 20 actually survives and are still operating. Maybe because not one has any practical utility yet, all basically still experimental.
And even though altcoins have utility and function, market forces still dictate price. Have you seen the 70% drawdowns in the tech sector. Tesla lost a lot of its value. What more regarding altcoins. They don’t actually have floors, well, they do at zero, LOL.
Jesus Christ, opportunities to dump your altcoins into large profits is very very fleeting. Imagine if I didn’t read the tweet about the 5,000% rise of SONM, the opportunity will certaintly pass me by. It just took four days, from 20 cents to $13 to $1. I sold at $8.
I missed the chance to dump Centric and make around $7,000 TWICE. SMH. That’s why it is important to monitor your portfolio.
]]>Much of the #Crypto market runs on Greater Fool Theory 😶🌫️ Given there are not many ‘fools’ left to saturate the game (+14 other reasons). I don’t think we have much gas left till everyone is caught off-side. Therefore….
🥂 I’m cashing out this years gains. 🥂
Before we take a deep dive - If I’m honest… This thread could be summed up in one tweet. ‘RR good. Happy 2 risk. Am buy. Let’s m00n’ - The bell curve meme is undefeated for a reason. - Buying is just about RR However - if you are not smart enough to be so simple?
Over the past year in investing I’ve learned one truth “Principles are more reliable than specifics” meaning that the reason investors CONSTANTLY miss opportunities that are obvious in hindsight… Is because they don’t understand how to weigh information. Instead they get lost in three things - Their opinion - Their love for minutia - Present data (corruptible in future)- Not realising principles are timeless. Let me simplify this for you.
]]>Since early this 2022, BTCUSD has been constantly showing a descending wedge pattern which is a bullish type (the opposite is ascending wedge). However, BTC breaks out of it and re-enters so we will be looking at other signals instead.
By the way, when I was writing this article, the FTX exchange went bankrupt and is now closed with user’s funds along with it. I’m sorry it happened but I’m sure the victims will get justice when Sam Bankman-Fried is jailed and funds are returned.
I recommend Binance which is the largest and the safest spot and derivative exchange. Or you could try Bitmex which used to be the go-to exchange for margin trading. If you want less KYC procedures and a bit of copy trading, try Bybit, the interface is very familiar to any crypto trader.
The November 7, 2022 week is the bottom of the 2022 Bitcoin downtrend. Back in January 12, 2015, popular exchanges, Bitstamp and Bitfinex made an all-time-high weekly dump volume. Last week, Coinbase made ATH weekly dump which means $15,512 is the bottom. Also we cannot count Binance because trading is fee-free which could be manipulated by volumizer bots or FTX that just went under.
Also last week was the current highest bitcoin dump volume, more than the Covid dump of March 2020, yet it was shallow, meaning the bid side has more liquidity. It could spell the final capitulation dump.
For a cautious trade entry, here’s a definite plan. BTCUSD always marks bottom with biggest distance away from 200-day Moving Average and confirms it with a crossover with price over the 200-day Moving Average. I’m guessing confirmation of bottom will happen around December 15, 2022 at $20,412 or maybe earlier time.
]]>
Anyway, I knew the risk. I heard of it before; “99% of coins will fail,” way back in 2015. Some of you may never heard of Auroracoin, Tak, Urocoin, Zetacoin, Libertycoin, Viacoin, Archcoin, etc (so many, this is a long list). HOWEVER, some gems do survive and thrive. The ones you regret selling too soon - Ethereum, Decred, Syscoin, Stellar, etc. I WAS BETTING SOME OF MY ALTCOIN HOLDS WERE GEMS. YOLO. Why not? Zero risk, right?
And it is hard to figure out which will thrive. I had low opinion on Syscoin and Decred. But they still exists today!
Anyway, I believed at that time, my altcoin holds show some promise in the future, based on dev team, resources and vision - an educated guess if you will. But alas, many of them are just flashy and believable. And so the old adage rings true again, out of a 1,000 coins, probably only 10 survives.
The tweet below hurts but it is a reminder that angel investing is sometimes gambling.
]]>This is true. People tend to buy back into the previous cycle's hype coins when things pick back up. All while some new shiny coin that just came out last month gives much higher returns usually.
— Daan Crypto Trades (@DaanCrypto) July 11, 2022
Just check back on the 2017 hype coins and how many of those never recovered. https://t.co/vesZpigQms
After some introspection, I believe regrets of selling early is the worse. Why? Because basically you didn’t get the target of your dreams. Nobody wants to be half a millionaire, it’s either a multi-millionaire or a working grunt which is already familiar to you. Nobody wants half a house. That’s why there’s YOLO (You only live once).
Because opportunities are fleeting and the best ones are rare; you grab your tickets and aim for the best, your dreams - no settling for second best. You only live once, it might never happen again in your lifetime. Fly high then crash and burn than never fly at all.
I remember chasing after really pretty girls. I usually choke and never attempt to talk to them. I remember not trying at all is the worse regret than trying to contact them and failing (at least you tried, now you know it’s not for you). The YOLO attitude is better than backing out and wondering a better life. Tried and failed is better than never tried at all, YOLO!
Imagine if your YOLOs were successes. Man, you have reached your dreams! If your YOLOs failed, well, you already know what it feels like in the dirt. Maybe another opportunity will come along, in Crypto, there will still be lots of opportunities since it’s still dial-up early, you just have to get out of the bed and search for them.
YOLO is better than regretting you could have reach your target dreams if you didn’t settle for second best.
]]>