Bag passing in the incoming Bitcoin mega bubble
Every market that had a mega bubble always involve the passing of bags, may it be overpriced tulips or ridiculous subprime mortgages.
The Chinese traders and miners are the last major bagholders of bitcoin which they probably bought around $160 — $300 per BTC during the last leg of the 2015 downtrend. They were banking on the halving hype that they believe will bring the price to $800.
So many had already profited from a 2x to 4x trade on the cryptocurrency and had probably been easily shaken out these past weeks with the extreme volatility.
So in effect, there are new bagholders who bought BTC around $800 to $1,100. However in order to keep the bull momentum going, someone has to buy these bags (Greater fool theory). The question is who?
The last few weeks has seen a significant increase in BTC/JPY trading. Perhaps, the Japanese traders will be the next to buy your bags and push bitcoin to new highs. The likelihood of this happening is further boosted by the recent actions of the Chinese exchanges where previously they had no trading fees and now they do and trading volume dropped a lot.
Two exchanges with the most BTC/JPY trading volume currently have no trading fees. I believe many traders will gravitate to these exchanges. I think the main trading of bitcoin will center on Japan after a few months.
Take note that major trends do not easily reverse, it may be long or very long but they happen, and most of the time without you noticing it. So, always stay unbiased.
