Here we are again, confused as to where the crypto markets are going. The price should have been on its way to recovery and onto new highs but the Omicron variant came, along with US Consumer Price Index showing inflation around 6.8%. Bitcoin and other cryptocoins suffered an average 39% drop from all-time-high price.
However, I still believe the top is not yet in. Below are several reasons:
1) Bull markets typically begin when the bear market hits its lowest level and end when euphoria is at its peak. BTCUSD last bullrun to $20k had 38% drops on average before ending. Legendary investor Sir John Templeton’s famous maxim dictates, “Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria.” Surely, we haven’t hit euphoria yet. Bull markets don’t die of old age or record highs, even 39% drop.
2) Quick check on BTCUSD price action history: 20k to 11k 44% decline, $3,000 to $1,900 38%, 775 to 465 39%, 502 to 295 41%, 300 to 195 36% decline. This may be the bottom since Bitcoin bottoms between 36% - 44% and BTC just made 39% decline from all-time-high price of $69k.
3) Bitcoin always bounces off the 50-week Moving Average. ($47,344 right now)
4) All-time-high Bitcoin hashrate
5) Ascending triangle theory - an ascending triangle is a great jump-off point to $100k - just like when Bitcoin’s price declined 50% after a huge descending triangle in November 2018.
6) OBV in the daily agrees with the ascending triangle theory
7) Onchain data is bullish
Brand new Alpha Beta Soup- piping hot!— TXMC (@TXMCtrades) December 9, 2021
Today I cover:
* Short-Term Holders getting REKT
* The likelihood of new highs in 2021
* PLUS a cool chart of spending/profit
Grab a beverage and a seat 🥃🛋️https://t.co/UbqSqFPhQG
BTCUSD never had 5 consecutive red weeks - it is either 1, 2, 3, 4, or maximum of 6 weeks. This week we may have 4 consecutive red weeks. If next week is red, very likely the following week will be red too. BTC had 5 4 weeks and 3 6 weeks. Of course this week may still end up green, cutting the red weeks to 3 only. But next week you will surely know bear market has come back.